An early lead on small numbers — and one filing behind Lilly.

Sixteen rows (berobenatide weekly and monthly shown separately), monotherapy at the dose taken forward, like for like. Weight loss is split by estimand: toggle EE (on-treatment; Viking's efficacy-population MMRM sits here) or TRE (treatment-regimen, ITT-like, what FDA generally asks for [gf4_fda_estimand]). Cells whose estimand is not stated (VESPER-1 berobenatide, amycretin, pemvidutide, enicepatide in T2D) are hatched in both modes [nw_bero_v1, nw_zena_sc_p1b, ms18, nw_ct388_t2d]. Durations are not normalised: VK2735 has 13 to 33 weeks [vk_venture_design, gf3_ind_17p5, gf3_control_w33]; the comparators run 48 to 80 [nw_ct388_obes, gf1_s1_design, rt_t1_wt]. At least four weekly incretins with ≥17% TRE or EE loss at 48–80 weeks will be on the market or filed before VK2735's modelled mid-2029 approval [A]: tirzepatide −20.9% TRE [gf1_s1_tre], retatrutide −25.0% TRE [rt_t1_wt], enicepatide −18.3 pp TRE placebo-adjusted [nw_ct388_obes], CagriSema −20.4% TRE [nw_cagri_r1_tp], ribupatide SC −17.7% TRE [nw_ribu_cn_p3]. CagriSema missed non-inferiority to tirzepatide head-to-head (EE 23.0% vs 25.5%) [nw_cagri_r4]: being close to tirzepatide does not win share. Every cell carries a tier (resolved / annotated / inferred / unknown). VK2735's own rows are Phase 1/2, ≤33 weeks and sponsor-reported.

EE = efficacy estimand (on-treatment). TRE = treatment-regimen / treatment-policy estimand (ITT-like; FDA generally asks for it). Viking's "eff-pop MMRM" is its efficacy population analysed with MMRM and sits closer to EE, so it is shown in EE mode as ≈EE. PA = placebo-adjusted percentage points; abs = change from baseline. VK2735 and retatrutide approval cells read the live timing sliders in section 10. CagriSema is a fixed-dose combination, shown for context but not monotherapy. Hover a cell for its fact IDs and notes.

Induction is where VK2735's tolerability is decided, and the topline headline hid it. Over 21 weeks the call deck shows nausea 42% vs 7% and vomiting 27% vs 7% on combined VK2735; at 22.5 mg, nausea 80% [gf3_ind_gi]. That replaces the CEO's spoken "5% range" [rel-01, superseded by gf3_ind_gi]. Only 1 of 166 stopped for an adverse event, but 22 of 166 (13%) left early, and the reasons for 21 of them are not disclosed [gf3_ind_dc]. VENTURE's 13-week fast titration ran to 20% AE discontinuation at 15 mg [vk_venture_aedc], against 6.2% for tirzepatide 15 mg over 72 weeks [gf1_s1_dcae] and 11.3% for retatrutide 12 mg over 80 [rt_t1_safety]. The 12-week maintenance window looks clean (nausea 4.5–5%, all mild; AE discontinuation 1/37 and 1/66) [gf3_maint_safety], but only patients who got through induction were in it. The oral is the weak spot: at 120 mg, 30% AE discontinuation and 38% any-reason over 13 weeks [vk_oral_aedc, vk_oral_anydc]. Its GI rates are drug-related, not all-cause, so they are kept apart from the SC bars [vk_oral_gi]. Windows run from 12 to 80 weeks; every bar is labelled with its own.

Bars carry their window. VK2735-102's 1% AE discontinuation is 21 weeks [gf3_ind_dc]; tirzepatide's 6.2% is 72 [gf1_s1_dcae]. VENTURE-Oral toggles AE vs any-reason discontinuation (30% vs 38% at 120 mg) [vk_oral_aedc, vk_oral_anydc]. Its vomiting bars are drug-related and drawn in a different pattern from all-cause SC rates [vk_oral_gi]. Bar scales: discontinuation and vomiting 0–40%, nausea 0–80%. Hover a group header for its AE basis and titration; hover a cell for fact IDs.

After 21 weeks of weekly dosing, Viking re-randomised patients for 12 weeks. Every-other-week dosing kept 90% of the week-21 loss, monthly 85%, and switching to placebo still kept 61% [gf3_maint_qow, gf3_maint_qm, gf3_maint_placebo]. Read the last number first: when stopping the drug altogether keeps 61% over 12 weeks, a 12-week window flatters any regimen. In absolute terms monthly maintenance lands at ~15.1% below baseline against 21.7% on continued weekly dosing [gf3_implied_w33, gf3_control_w33]. Viking does not define "% maintained", and one excluded outlier moves an 11-person arm from 99% to 85% [gf3_maint_def, gf3_outlier]. Different windows: tirzepatide's 5 mg step-down kept ~77% over 52 weeks [gf1_sm_ret5] and orforglipron after tirzepatide 74.7% [or53, nw_attain_maintain]. These are not like-for-like with the 12-week VK2735 figures. The value question is price, not retention. If payers pay per month, a monthly patient-month is worth ~0.85 of a weekly one; if they pay per pen, ~0.23 [A]. No obesity drug has a frequency-based price precedent [unverified: gf10_ratio_freq]. The market has already paid for monthly dosing once, in Pfizer's Metsera CVRs [nw_mtsr_final].

Dated catalysts ahead