Disclosure · the author is long CTMX. Investment research, not investment advice.
Price as of publication · The spot price is the $2.69 close of 15 September 2026, the last close before this briefing was published on 16 September 2026. It is not updated afterwards, so every comparison with spot describes the market on that date.
Varseta-M and Precem-TcT are the same bet twice: a topoisomerase-1 payload ADC in late-line CRC, one masked to EpCAM, one targeting CEACAM5, twelve to twenty-four months apart. Precem-TcT's Phase 3 dosed its first patient on 2026-05-21; Varseta-M's registrational trial has not yet started, targeted 1H 2027 — the gap this page quantifies runs through PoS, share and price, not through a different mechanism. All Varseta-M figures on this page are Phase 1, single-arm, sponsor-reported (n=93, cutoff 2026-01-16); treat the base-case ~$0.7B risked peak (1.2B CRC × 0.5 PoS + 0.4B gastric × 0.25) as a range, not a forecast.
Risked annual revenue, $M · Varseta-M PoS-weighted at the active CRC probability · Precem-TcT weighted by its own PoS, shifted by the lead-time slider, and declining from its own LoE year (default 2041, section 08)
Six agents compete for the same late-line CRC patient: two topo-1 ADCs in Phase 3 (Precem-TcT, telisotuzumab adizutecan), one Phase 1 ADC entering pivotal design (Varseta-M), and three approved standards of care that any new entrant's Phase 3 must beat on OS. A seventh row tracks daraxonrasib — not a CRC competitor, but the incoming 2L PDAC standard of care against which a future Varseta-M PDAC expansion would have to compete.
Efficacy columns are monotherapy, like-for-like: confirmed ORR and mPFS are quoted for single-agent use at the dose taken forward, except the standard-of-care rows, which are the regimens as approved. Combination results (e.g. Temab-A + bevacizumab, the regimen in its pivotal trial) are held in the cell notes, visible on hover, not in the columns.
Three series: the selected Varseta-M cohort, Precem-TcT (direct competitor) and Trodelvy (topo-1 ADC tolerability reference). Sources and scale in the legend below.
Bear $0.35B, base $1.6B, bull $3.1B unrisked peak — CRC alone in bear, CRC + gastric + PDAC + BTC in bull. Toggle risked/unrisked to see how much of the bull case is speculative expansion revenue that has not yet reported a single Phase 1 patient (gastric, PDAC and BTC cohorts start Q3 2026).
| Layer of protection | Basis | Runs to |
|---|---|---|
| EpCAM ADC composition-of-matter, family 1 | WO2020/086665, filed 2019 (CytomX / ImmunoGen); EP grant intended March 2025 | ~2039, extendable to ~2044 with patent term extension (max 5 yr, one patent) |
| EpCAM ADC family 2 | Filed 2023, published in US, EU, JP, CN and others | ~2043 if granted |
| US reference-product exclusivity (BPCIA) | 12 years from first BLA approval; model approval 2030–31 | 2042–43, independent of patents |
| EU regulatory data protection | 8 + 2 (+1) years from first EU approval ~2031–32 | 2041–43 |
| Portfolio-wide statement | CytomX FY2025 10-K: issued patents expire 2028–2042, pending to 2046, before extension; CX-2051 not broken out | — |
Base case takes 2043 as the year exclusivity effectively ends, the point where US regulatory exclusivity and the 2023 patent family both lapse and family 1 depends on an extension. Revenue then declines linearly to zero over three years. Flag [M]: the individual patents covering varsetatug masetecan have not been confirmed against the registers; an ADC-class biosimilar erosion slower than three years is plausible. Move the "LoE year" slider in section 08 (range 2036–2048) to test it.
Risked peak sales, $B. Every $2k of net price and every 10 points of share reprices the peak — read this before trusting a single-point number.
CRC rNPV, $M. Lead time beyond 18 months brings the cross-resistance haircut into play: patients reaching Varseta-M having already progressed on a topo-1 ADC.
CRC carries essentially all of the risked value today; gastric, PDAC and BTC are each capped by a low PoS applied to Phase 1 cohorts that had not enrolled a patient at this page's data vintage. Net cash is pro-forma $367.3M (Q2 2026 close $330.3M plus the $37.0M Regeneron payment received July 2026); no debt.
Triangular draws on US share, net price, cycles per patient, CRC PoS and Precem-TcT lead time, centred on the live slider values. Measured from the run in front of you.